The hidden factors that unlock the next big EV market

Many assume EV adoption follows a predictable, incremental curve. It does not. Market transformation happens in sudden, often unpredictable leaps—triggered by regulatory shifts, infrastructure breakthroughs, or economic incentives. These moments define which markets thrive and which struggle to keep up.

A case in point is Portugal versus Spain.

Portugal vs. Spain: A case study in policy-driven momentum

Just a few years ago, Portugal was a minor player in Europe’s EV transition. Today, it is one of the fastest-growing EV markets on the continent. What are the key factors behind this development? Well-structured government incentives, a proactive regulatory framework, and a growing recognition of long-term energy and infrastructure costs.

In January 2025, BEVs accounted for 22.5% of new car sales in Portugal, with 5,399 new registrations—representing a 40.97% increase compared to January 2024 (Alternative Fuels Observatory). At the same time, public charging infrastructure expanded by 34% in 2023, dramatically improving accessibility for EV owners.

Meanwhile, Spain lags despite strong EV adoption potential. A fragmented regulatory landscape, inconsistent policies, and grid limitations have made large-scale EV infrastructure deployment difficult. While BEV sales in Spain grew 7.8% in 2024, its total market share for electrified passenger cars (BEV + PHEV) actually declined from 12.0% in 2023 to 11.4% in 2024 (Alternative Fuels Observatory).

A more pressing issue is infrastructure inefficiency. As of Q3 2023, 8,900 EV chargers in Spain—over 23% of the total—remained non-operational due to administrative delays and grid connection issues (Statista).

The key takeaway? EV adoption is not just about technology—it’s about the entire ecosystem.

A common misconception is that EV adoption depends solely on the number of chargers installed. The reality is that the true bottleneck is infrastructure that fails to scale efficiently over time.

Many decision-makers prioritise low-cost, basic chargers over grid-aware, load-optimised solutions. The consequences are clear:

• Underutilised power capacity, where many sites lack dynamic load (and phase) balancing, leads to unnecessary grid upgrades at high costs.

• Grid instability is caused by poorly planned high-power charging hubs, increasing the risk of supply disruptions.

• Short lifespans and high long-term costs, as low-cost chargers often lack phase balancing, require expensive retrofits within a few years.

Our paradoxical obsession with fast-charging

An even greater issue is the overemphasis on rapid DC charging. Too often, EV charging is seen through the lens of replicating the petrol station model—fast stops, rapid refuels, and getting back on the road. While DC charging plays a role, it is not the foundation for mass EV adoption. In reality, most vehicles spend the vast majority of their time parked. Studies show that the average European car is parked 92 per cent of the time, with an average daily driving distance of just 30 kilometres.

Instead of focusing exclusively on high-cost, high-power charging hubs, the real opportunity lies in seamless AC charging where cars are already parked—at home, at work, and in everyday locations like shopping centres and gyms.

Smart charging solutions optimise energy use and protect the grid. Zaptec’s technology ensures that close to 100% of all available energy is used efficiently, stabilising local networks and reducing long-term infrastructure costs.

The question every decision-maker should ask is whether they are building for today or for the next decade.

Market shifts do not happen solely because of technology. They occur when policy, technology, infrastructure, and economic incentives align.

Let’s look at an example: The arrival of the Tesla Model 3 was about more than a new electric vehicle. It was about timing. A combination of affordable pricing, an ‘attractive package’ of technology, shifting consumer perception, and a maturing charging network made mass adoption inevitable.

A similar moment is approaching in charging infrastructure if we look at Europe as a whole.

What will drive the next leap?

• Regulatory frameworks that mandate smart grid integration for better infrastructure planning instead of unstructured charger deployment.

• Government-backed incentives prioritising smart AC charging, ensuring that grids remain stable as EV adoption scales.

• Dynamic energy pricing models that reward load balancing, shifting the focus from rapid charger expansion to intelligent grid optimisation.

• On the consumer side, a wider range of affordable EV models appeal to the European mass market.

Some markets will be ready. Others will be left scrambling to keep up.

The biggest mistake in emerging markets is waiting for demand to materialise. The most successful players do not follow the shift; they build the conditions that make it inevitable.

Zaptec’s goal is not to chase market trends. We want to help shape them.

The question is: Is your market ready?